New LNG supply to change gas market dynamics, says industry expert

The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is heading for a fundamental change, with new supply from the United States and Qatar expected to shift the industry from scarcity to abundance, according to Pat Breen, chairman and CEO of Gas Strategies.

Writing in The National, Breen notes that while this year's disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have created a narrative of tight supply, the longer-term picture is very different. Liquefaction capacity on the US Gulf Coast and Qatar's North Field expansion will add significant volumes in the second half of this decade, leaving the world well supplied.

For producers, buyers and traders in the Gulf, this means the competitive landscape is about to shift. Breen highlights three key changes: players become more sophisticated, with producers buying into facilities on other continents – QatarEnergy is majority owner of Golden Pass in Texas, and Adnoc's international arm XRG holds equity in Rio Grande LNG. Competition moves from fixed positions within one chain to competition between alternative chains, where a role can be quietly bypassed. And the overall system becomes more complex, with speed of execution becoming part of value.

"In this market, speed is part of value. Slow execution is not neutral; it hands the opportunity to whoever moves first," Breen writes. But he cautions that speed without understanding destroys value just as surely.

For Qatar and the UAE, the transition holds particular weight. Both countries built their place in the LNG industry on reliability, and in a well-supplied market where buyers have choices, that trust becomes the product itself. Breen argues that trust belongs to the whole industry, not one country, and is earned only when the complete chain delivers.

The analysis may resonate with Gulf energy players as they weigh further investment. Breen's advice to boards is simple: "What are you changing now, before something visibly breaks?"